Рус

Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation

Global gas market may become more balanced

At the turn of the year 2020-2021, the situation on the world's natural gas markets has considerably changed. A significant increase in prices during the winter period, although largely associated with the weather and climatic factors, makes it possible to consider their prospects from a positive side. This and the situation on other energy markets is presented in a new bulletin of the Analytical Center.

In January 2021, there was a record increase in gas prices (+ 66.6% against last year’s December in Asia, + 25.3% in Europe and + 2.5% in the United States). The main reason for the rise in prices in Asia and Europe remains the increased demand amid a cold winter against the backdrop of limited supply, and in the United States - because of the cold winter as well, analysts write. In Russia, gas production growth in January 2021 reached 4.8% YoY, which is caused by increased demand.

The events of recent months are a reminder of the continuing role of gas in energy balances in the conditions of periodic weather and climate shocks, the bulletin says. Gas can provide a more flexible response to fluctuations in demand in contrast to renewable energy sources and nuclear power, at least before the start of the massive introduction of commercially efficient energy storage.

Due to a moderate recovery in supplies compared to demand, the world gas market may become more balanced this year, analysts say. A balanced market will improve the price situation and thus, probably, overcompensate for Russia's losses from a decline in exports.

The experts in the bulletin also made a detailed analysis of other types of fuel: oil, coal and electricity.

Read more in the “Gas Markets Emerging Out of the Crisis” bulletin

Other energy bulletins are available here