Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation

Alexander Kurdin

Premature to speak about future LNG oversupply or deficit

Russia plans to at least triple production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2035. The United States and Qatar have similar plans, according to the Sputnik news agency. Research head at the Analytical Center’s Department for Expert Analytics Alexander Kurdin has commented on the issue to Sputnik.

According to the International Energy Agency’s estimates, the global annual demand for gas will near 5 trillion cubic meters in 2035 in the baseline scenario, as against about 4 trillion cubic meters in 2018-2019, before this crisis, Kurdin said. The significance of LNG for the global gas supply will be growing, not only because of the increasing supply in the United States and the Asia Pacific region but also because of the attempts of buyers and sellers to ensure the supply flexibility. Hence, it is quite possible that Russia’s supply of over 100 million tonnes of LNG, which is equivalent to 130-140 billion cubic meters of gas, to the global market will be in demand in the long-term future, despite the existence of fierce competition, including the rivalry between LNG and pipeline gas suppliers.

The expert noted that at least half of the new demand would come from the Asia Pacific region and India, the primary market for broader sales, although the geography of LNG trade would be vast in general – the experience of recent years indicates that Russian gas could be in demand even in America in certain cases, although this is rather an exception.

It’s premature to speak about either oversupply or deficit in the 15-year prospect (and, respectively, of price shocks), Sputnik quoted Kurdin as saying. Major energy projects are based on the fact of a generally balanced market, considering the adaption of both demand and supply in the long-term future; obviously, we will see periods of both oversupply and deficit in this timeframe, depending on the schedule of commissioning of investment projects in the gas industry and, accordingly, gas consuming enterprises.