Leonid Grigoriev, the Chief Adviser to the Head of the Analytical Center, spoke in a live program "Events. The 25th Hour" on TV Channel TVC.
If we assume oil prices of $60, the ruble can still be strengthened
Speaking about the situation with Iran, the expert suggested that the sanctions lifting will take about a year. "I don't think that the market will collapse because of Iran. If we assume oil prices of $60, it seems to me that the ruble can still be strengthened", said Mr. Grigoriev.
The expert believes that, in terms of the economy, "we did not return to stability - neither by the rate of the Central Bank, nor by the exchange rate, but it became a little bit easier." "In February 2015, Russians bought 2 times less currency than in February 2014. They sold as much, and bought 2 times less, because our citizens are educated in the extreme. They waited for the fall of the currency. Therefore, the demand for the currency fell, while oil was near $55, so there was the influx of dollars, and the outcome - what is now called stabilization", said Grigoriev.
Regarding the attractiveness of the ruble for speculators, expert believes that large speculators consider the ruble undervalued, because "we have retained a large net exports, and reserves of the Central Bank began to grow".
Concerning the impact on oil prices by the situation in the Middle East, Mr. Grigoriev said that the Gulf states plan their budget based on an oil price of $80 p/b. "When it rolled back to $50, they have howled, said the expert. "I think they experience financial problems and begin to raise the price of oil gradually. In turn, OPEC will try to keep the current price of oil."
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