The country has seen a rise in unemployment: more than 90,000 new unemployed Russians were officially registered in just one month. How will the labor market develop, how the rise in unemployment will affect its status, and which prompt and effective measures can the Government offer? The IA REGNUM reporter asked experts about it. One of them was Vladimir Trubin, the Expert of the Department for Social Policy of the Analytical Center.
It seems unduly optimistic to expect intensification of labor mobility able to solve problem of unemployment in coming years
"The Government has a set of tools and financial resources sufficient to curb the growth of unemployment. It will not grow to a level that could give rise to social instability - we see the experience of overcoming the global financial crisis of 2008. Thus, the overall unemployment rate in Russia in 2009, compared with 2008, increased by 1.4 percentage points - from 6.2 to 8.3%. However, in 2010 there was a decline to 7.3%, and in subsequent years to 5.5% - that is a lower figure than in the years before the crisis", said Mr. Trubin.
As for the speed and effectiveness of the Government support of labor mobility of citizens to curb unemployment, this thesis, according to the expert, is not so obvious. "Indeed, the labor mobility is a highly effective tool for solving the problems of employment, and the historical experience of the USSR confirms this. The system of incentives in the form of cash payments, compensations and benefits provided the opportunity to implement for decades a territorial redistribution of tens of thousands of people on a voluntary basis in various forms (relocation, redeployment, public appeals, recruitment and so on) from regions with the surplus of labor to regions with the deficit of labor, to regions of the new economic development, for staffing the major projects under construction, and so on", considers the expert.
However, the new Russia abandoned these tools, considering them as of little use in the new economy. According to Mr. Trubin, the personnel, organizational and methodological approaches, the data base for management of labor mobility, were lost. New approaches have not been developed for the 90-ies of XX century and in the following decade, considers the expert. The labor mobility was again considered as a management tool only in April, 2014. The Government of the Russian Federation has approved a plan of measures to improve the mobility of citizens of the Russian Federation for 2014-2018, dated April 24, 2014, N 663-r.
"However, this is only a list of planned activities, but not a list of specific measures, clear and understandable to people and businesses, regional authorities, which could be the incentives to labor mobility. We can't rely on the fact that people will go soon to new places without these measures, even in the presence of vacancies there: people need a housing infrastructure, social infrastructure and others. We cannot resolve these issues quickly, particularly in the budget deficit and taking into account the sluggishness of the administrative system, although we should start. So, it seems unduly optimistic to expect that the intensification of the labor mobility will be able to solve the problem of unemployment in coming years", Mr.Trubin concluded.
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