By 2020 the increase in world demand for oil will exceed the growth of world oil production almost by 1,5 million barrels. Such consolatory forecast was made by the International Energy Agency. It means that oil will rise in price.
Average annual price will probably make 60 dollars per barrel
'New expected scenarios will probably proceed from the decrease in volumes of production by 20-30 million tons per year to the first half of the 2020's', the Head of Department for Strategic Studies in energy of the Analytical Center Alexander Kurdin commented on this situation to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta". 'It is firstly connected with natural exhaustion of traditional mining areas and difficulties of exploitation in new areas'.
Taking into account sanctions and low prices it is possible that the reduction will be a little bigger than it was expected, according to the expert. New projects on the shelf can get a scolding. 'If sanctions remain for a long time exploitation in the Arctic will start not at the beginning of the 2020's as it is planned, but later. As a result, the falling-out volumes during this period will be small and will make about 10-15 million tons per year', considers Mr. Kurdin.
As for prices, if they will pass into the higher range this year, it will be absolutely not so quickly as the countries-exporters of raw materials would like', the expert noted. 'And started at the end of January price increase can turn into temporary reversion to the level of 50 dollars per barrel, though it is more likely that the average annual price will make 60 dollars for barrel', said Mr. Kurdin.