The Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Center Leonid Grigoriev took part in the program “Pravo znat’!” on TVC Channel where experts discussed Russia’s economy fate in 2015 and the ruble devaluation reasons.
Key aspect of economic recovery is in consumption stabilization
“The budget is reducing by 10%, it will lose ground”, said the expert. “Investments’ negative growth happened in 2013, in 2014 investments have fallen even more. Therefore, we actually got into the economy with high interest rates and falling investments". The key issue in the economic recovery is the consumption stabilization, according to the expert. "It is important that no group - region, professional group, etc. – will "fail", will not create social, psychological problems”, considers Mr. Grigoriev.
Mr. Grigoriev recalled the crisis of the early 90s. "Then reforms were a year late”, said the expert. “The current situation is as follows: the Central Bank did not do anything for a long time, the collapse of the ruble started, so they had to raise the rate by 6.5%. This is a gross regulation. And it is clear that it was too late”. The Central Bank should have reacted to the situation as fast as speculators did.
The expert sees some crisis 2008 features. However, then the situation was intervened by OPEC. Now the political situation is different, depth of the oil prices fall is different, so there is no need in OPEC to interfere, according to the expert.
The population soberly appraises the situation, according to Mr. Grigoriev. "Nowadays people are reasonable: they keep money in different currencies, shift deposits, take in goods, so there is no tragedy and panic among them”, says the expert. The Central Bank should have talked to citizens, should have explained the current situation. But even without this assistance citizens coped with it, according to the expert.
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