Main trend lines of demographic situation in Russia today are similar to global ones, including economically developed countries, experts of the Analytical Center believe. These trend lines are: low birth-rates, considerably heavy mortality, ageing of population, therefore growth of demographic load, uncontrolled pattern of migration, intraregional in particular. Current crisis and sanctions cannot affect these trends as trends are permanent and sanctions are temporary.
Sanctions will not strongly affect demographic situation in Russia
Measures of State support of development of population are set by laws and the Constitution of the Russian Federation. State support of population policy is governed by budget appropriation, from federal budget mostly.
IA REGNUM cites Head of the Department for Social Policy Natalia Nikolaeva that reinforcement of sanctions will put pressure on budget. Status of country’s economic situation and global business environment influences capability of budget expenditures. However, public assistance funds are public liabilities, and results of adjustments cannot provide for their reduction. “As we know, in the conditions of the world economic crises 2008-2009 Russia yet could avoid sequestering of expenses on social needs and liabilities”, says Ms. Nikolaeva.
Other program sections, which are not a state aid in the truest sense of the word, but influence the objects which provide services (education, public health services etc.), may be cut down, according to the expert. Furthermore, sanction actions may affect incomes and lower social standards of living through an impact on country’s economy and price level. Hence, a drop in income and living standards may have an adverse effect on birth-rates. “Many people will just postpone delivery of a child until prime-time”, believes the expert.
Counsellor of the Department for Social Policy of the Analytical Center Vladimir Trubin sees a potentially positive effect of this situation -”Sanctions and current crisis provide us with an inflow of Ukrainian migrants with high skill level and of working age. They help us to gain labor force. Many of them come with families and children, which affects demographic increase. Their legitimate placement and tax liabilities partly compensate state social expenditures on this citizen category, says the expert. “In this context the migrants’ inflow is necessary for increase of demographic potential, solving of socioeconomic problems and needs of labor-market”, says Mr. Trubin.