The Analytical Center looked at the development of Russia’s grain market until 2030 using three main scenarios: baseline, pessimistic, and optimistic. The different parameters are the amount of crops, agricultural land, yield, imports, and exports.
A lot of experience has been accumulated in the world creating and using forecast models that help researchers to study the way changes in the markets and economic policy measures affect the grain market. Most international and national forecasts are based on partial equilibrium models. The Analytical Center’s publication on the issue presents the results of a scenario-based forecast that utilized a new model for Russia, which can forecast key performance indicators for the Russian grain market in relation to three key grains: wheat, barley, and maize.
The text of the Scenario-Based Forecast for Russian Grain Market.