The Analytical Center published first two Bulletins of a new series on current trends of global economy. The focus of the first Bulletin is on an updated economic outlook of the IMF. The information in the Bulletin is intended to monitor development trends of the world and its regions, to analyze key factors influencing economic growth, trade, welfare, processes of accumulation in the world and regions, eventually affecting Russian economy and its interests.
In the developing world the significant progress of the growth in the XXI century brought a number of countries to a new level of development, which for many of them means new challenges - a so-called ‘mid-level development trap’. In terms of GDP, emerging countries caught up with developed c ountries, and in terms of investments - outran them. However, these investments are of different types at different stages of development: from post-industrial development to various stages of industrial growth or transition phases. In these circumstances, a new model of global growth is only emerging, many challenges are ahead - of global and regional, sectoral and country types.
Difficulties in predicting behavior of commodity markets, nervousness of the economic policy, attempts to expand various alliances - all these facts are associated with the transformation of global economy. Fluctuations in commodity markets, new features of the scientific and technological revolution - all contribute to the growth model, a framework for long-term solutions in the field of both industrial policy and large companies’ actions.
The second issue of the Bulletin is devoted to the dynamics of world economy in the early autumn of 2015. The global environment remains heterogeneous across countries and continents. In general, the depression remains - a global full-fledged recovery has not spread over since the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The decreasing dynamics of the foreign trade in a number of leading countries is of particular concern.
The focus of this issue is on economies of the Greater Middle East - Arab countries, Iran and Turkey. We want to show the difficult situation in this significant region of the world without analyzing deeply driving forces of economic growth, the nature of failures in development and social movements in the Arab world and Turkey. The region is characterized by severely uneven development of neighbors, depending on three key parameters: the oil production, the size of the population and its growth rate, the stable social and political environment. Of course, oil-exporting countries have higher incomes, but their development is a subject to fluctuations depending on oil prices.
Economic growth in almost all countries of the region is barely sufficient to ensure the growing population, thereby preventing the improvement of its standards of living. The challenging economic situation, the dictatorship, the corruption and the weak democracy undermined the stability of political regimes in several countries. A series of revolutions, wars and conflicts recently took place in the region and still goes on in such Arab countries as Libya, Yemen and especially Syria. However, the Arab Spring did not lead to real life improvements and did not accelerate development. The idea of the democracy progress turned out to be in a conflict with realities: the ‘revolution cost’ was too high, and the life of the population has deteriorated in many ways. Events in Syria affect the political stability in the region, but slow economic growth is accompanied by a rapid population swell, which results in poverty and instability.
The first issue of the Bulletin on current trends in world
economy can be found in the