Transport Sector May Be a Tool to Monitor Inner State of the Country

4 december 2015

The private consumption of personal and public transport, the structure of passenger traffic in Russia, the urban transport, the inter-regional transportation - experts of the Analytical Center studied public involvement in the use of transport services. It is the transport being a large infrastructure sector that is an instrument for monitoring of the socio-economic situation in the country. Passenger traffic is directly linked to the citizens' mobility and is very revealing in a crisis, experts consider.

According to the latest estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, at the end of 2015 Russian GDP will fall by 3.7%, the real household disposable income - by 4%, and the total passenger turnover in the country, if the current trend remains, by 3-4%.

In recent years, the Russians began to travel long-distances, and increasingly - by air. If we look at the figures for the first three quarters of 2015, the transportation of passengers by air transport in Russia even increased - though only by 1% compared to the same period last year. However passenger traffic between Russia and far-abroad countries decreased by 17%. Overall, despite the crisis and difficulties of companies related to the devaluation of the ruble, the volume of passenger traffic remains the same, experts confirm.

The dynamics of passenger traffic in the railway sector in Russia does not show significant changes. Experts believe that commuters make their contribution to the stability of the index, as they are the majority of the population, especially on the Moscow railway and they use it on a regular basis. The share of long-distance passenger traffic is decreasing: if in 2013 it was on average equal to 10%, in first 9 months of 2015 it was 9.6%.

Considering competition between various modes of transport, experts first of all pay attention to the choice between economy-class passenger cars and inter-city buses to travel to medium-range distances. In 2007-2013 buses were more expensive than average economy class branded and non-branded trains, and in 2014-2015 the situation changed in favor of buses.

More - in the Bulletin 'Public involvement in the use of transport services.'

Other editions of the bulletin on socio-economic crisis - in the Publications section.