Experts’ Different Views on Economy Growth Prospects

1 december 2015

What are the prospects for Russian economy? Will its growth rebound? What are the investments’ sources? What are the budget prospects in changing global environment? These and other questions were discussed within the Round Table ‘Projected Growth of Russian and Global Economies’ which took place at the Analytical Center.

Global economy is being in stagnation at the moment, according to Leonid Grigoriev, the Chief Adviser to the Head of the Analytical Center. ‘China is dealing with its unpleasant 5-6% in both inner and foreign markets; Brazil is being in severe conditions, the EU -  in decline. We are trying to monitor all trends, as things are now,’ said Mr Grigoriev. The situation is almost similar in all countries, considers the expert.

Concerning the energy sector, all countries will face many challenges and hardships, according to the expert’s outlook. ‘The specific nature of competition today considering low oil prices is not the same, as it is developing at a time when a tech revolution in oil production and tight oil is taking place. Many things will depend on how warm the winter would be,’ considers Mr Grigoriev.2014 and 2015 were the warmest years, and if this coming winter is ‘favorable’ everyone will live it through without problems, but if not we will face many problems, considers the expert.

Natalia Ivanova, the First Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), referred to the IMF and the IMEMO data. ‘In fact, economy is growing quite well, and during the next year it will accelerate its growth,’ considers the expert.  The IMF and the IMEMO outlooks are not that different, however there are some differences in the estimates. For example, the IMF considers that China will slow down significantly in 2016 - from 6.8 to 6.3%. ‘We believe that there will be no such sharp fall. China will take advantages of all the reserves to support economic growth, because it cannot slow down. Europe, according to the IMF estimates, will have 1.9, and according to our - 1.7%,’ said the expert.  She does not consider these figures to indicate stagnation. ‘There is economic growth, though slow one, and it is in line with European trends,’ said Ms Ivanov. The expert also predicts a mild acceleration in the US, where a large number of measures is taken to support economy. There is a more favorable Russian outlook by the IMEMO, too. ‘3rd and 4th quarters show that the situation is improving at the level of macroeconomic indicators, and  we consider the last quarter to be better than others. In 2016 we will be at the 0-level, while the IMF outlook gives a -2,’ said the expert.

Whatever outlooks are, experts are sure that citizens will seek support, and some measures will be taken in 2016.