Tatiana Yuzhakova and Inna Karakchieva, experts of the Analytical Center, published an article on dynamics and the forecast of Russia's population, covered by the education system. Experts consider strategic decisions of the state policy in the sphere of education must take into account projected needs of the industry.
The role of the population in socio-economic development of the country is undeniable, and the demographic factor is the base for the development of socio-economic development of Russia, experts write. The population both produces and consumes educational services, and, to predict the situation in this area, it is important to analyze not only the actual number of population, but also its dynamics under the influence of various factors - the natural movement of the population, socio-economic and environmental factors.
Knowing the rate of the population change (by sex, age) is the basis for predicting the education market and determining the extent of relevant activities. In Russia, in the period from 2010 to 2015, an increase in population took place. At the beginning of 2015 the figure was about 146.3 million people (in 2010 - 142.9 million people). The population growth is due not only to the natural growth and migration, but also the fact that since 2014 the statistics have been taking into account the population of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol - and this is 2.294 million people as of January 1, 2015. However, according to available forecasts, the growth of the population of Russia by 2025 will reduce for all three variants of the forecast, and, according to the pessimistic scenario, in 2021 will be generally negative.
At the same time every year the Russia's education system covers about 30 million people (an average of 19.81% of the country's population), experts write. According to forecasts, with the reduction of the total population, the number of the Russian population covered by the education system will decrease, reaching by 2025 the values of 2011-2012. In such a situation, experts write, Russia needs a system of government measures not only to provide jobs for dismissed teachers, but also the buildings, premises and facilities of organizations providing educational services, so it is necessary to carry out adjustments to the existing framework of strategic programs.
The population policy, according to the experts, should be coordinated with other areas of the social policy - education, training, employment, social security of people with disabilities, elderly and disabled people. The successful problem solving could be possible with the increase of the availability of pre-school education, the teaching loads reduction, creating an enabling environment for the implementation of the federal state educational standards for general education, strengthening the role of supplementary education for children and others.
Details, including statistical data, are in the article "Impact of demographic factors on the coverage of the educational system of Russia" in the pages of the "Bulletin of Science and Education."