The Analytical Center continues to monitor the situation of unemployment in Russia. "Even with a projected reduction of GDP by 3 to 5%, unemployment rate in 2015 will not exceed the indicators of the crisis of 2009," says Vladislav Onishchenko, the First Deputy Head of the Analytical Center.
According to the Analytical Center, the total number of unemployed in 2015 could reach 6 million people. However, according to Vladimir Trubin, an expert of the Analytical Center, there are official and hidden unemployment, and these are two fundamentally different phenomena. "The hidden unemployment exists without crises, including as a consequence of low productivity," explains Trubin. "These forms differ by consequences, in terms of obligations of the state. The open unemployment implies the need of social support from the state, but the hidden unemployment is regulated mainly at the level of internal production."
Measures implemented under the programs to promote employment, do not have a decisive influence on the state of unemployment, including in times of crisis. The main activity of the State Employment Service is the implementation of passive policies - employment of the unemployed, the provision of public services to citizens on vocational guidance, to attract people to temporary and public works. This policy, according to analysts, is justified as a temporary anti-crisis measure. However, its long-term implementation, which is a characteristic for Russia, is fraught with serious risks from the standpoint of motivation to work, improving vocational qualification level, stimulating the growth of labor productivity.
Experts of the Analytical Center consider it appropriate to take into account the experience of the OECD countries, where activities in the labor market are funded much more actively than in Russia. Also, in their view, foreign experience is of interest in terms of expanding the list of both passive and - in particular - of active labor market measures, as well as the introduction of the mechanism of insurance against unemployment.