According to forecasts of experts of the Analytical Center, the unemployment rate in Russia won't exceed 8,3% in 2015

2 april 2015

The Analytical Center began production of information and analytical bulletins on social issues. The first issue focuses on unemployment in Russia and foreign countries during the crisis period.

Experts reviewed the unemployment during the economic crisis, as well as results of activities to reduce it, conducted in Russia and abroad in 2005-2014. The article also discussed programs implemented in the labor markets of Russia and foreign countries during the crisis period, and their financial security. It also included data on basic parameters of the state program of the Russian Federation on "Promotion of employment".

After analyzing, experts concluded that the global financial crisis, both in Russia and abroad, was accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate by an average of 3.2 percentage points compared to the pre-crisis period. According to calculations, with options for predictable reducing of GDP by 3 to 5%, the unemployment rate in Russia in 2015 will not exceed the level of 2009, when it was 8.3%. In this case, the number of unemployed people, taking into account the predictable number of economically active population of 71,7 million of people in 2015 (according to the Ministry of the Economic Development of Russia), will be about 5.5-6.0 million people this year.

Measures implemented by governments and businesses through programs of support/promotion of employment, both at the national and regional levels, do not have a decisive influence on the state of unemployment, including in times of crisis. In this case, written by experts, the main focus of the public employment service in the years 2005-2012 should be to implement measures, that are attributable to passive employment policies - employment of the unemployed population, provision of public services on career guidance for the citizens, involving people in temporary and public works. This policy, according to analysts, is justified as a temporary anti-crisis measure. However, its long-term implementation, which is characteristic for Russia, is fraught with serious risks to the population from the standpoint of motivation to work, improve the professional qualification level, and, in respect of the business - from the perspective of stimulating the growth of labor productivity.

Experts believe it appropriate to take into account the experience of OECD countries, where the activities in the labor market are funded much more effectively, than in Russia. Also, from their point of view, foreign experience, related to expanding the list of both passive and - in particular - active labor market measures, as well as the introduction of an insurance against unemployment, are of a great interest. Results of predictive calculations can be recommended for the program of action in the labor market of the Russian Federation in 2015 and subsequent years, including in the framework of anti-crisis measures undertaken by the Government of the Russian Federation.

Read more in the bulletin "Unemployment in Russia and foreign countries in times of crisis."