The expert of the Analytical Center Alexander Golyashev presented the Analytical Center's preliminary work results on Russian and global liquid fuel markets development prospects during the 9th strategic congress Oil Terminal 2014.
Mr. Golyashev spoke “Prospects of Eastern and Western vectors of Russian oil and petroleum products exports” at the first congress session. During the speech the expert announced some preliminary work results of the Analytical Center and the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Science from “Global and Russian Energy Outlook to 2040”
In Outlook-2040 a "The New Producers” scenario is described, which measures prospects and effects of new entrants arrival in global energy markets, first and foremost Iran which leads to partial extrusion of the US and Russia. The remaining tension between the EU and Russia leads to changes in the European power balance and directions of hydrocarbon supply from Russia.
Developed countries due to dynamic energy saving will increase consumption by only 4.6% up to 2040, however this increase will happen through the period up to 2030, and then will almost stop. Within consumption of crude energy by types of fuel worldwide up to 2040 shares aligning is forecasted for fossil fuels (oil -26%, gas – 24%, coal – 26%) and nonfossil fuels (24% in total), which speaks for inter-fuel competition development and energy supply stability improvement.
Refining capacities will display a total increase from 4.5 billion tons in 2010 to 5.4 in 2040, with the main growth in capacity occurring in the developing countries of Asia, Middle East and Africa. New refineries projects are expected in developing countries, and in Europe – vice versa – withdrawal of some plants out of service.
One of the key events in international oil and oil products trade in the decade will be a transformation of North America up to 2040 due to nonconventional oil extraction from crude oil net importer into net exporter. CIS countries are losing their niche in the European market and will increase supply to Asia-Pacific Region market (primarily to China’s market) from 75 million tonnes in 2010 up to 100 million tonness in 2040. But dominant suppliers will be Middle East countries, which up to 2040 will provide up to ¾ of crude oil supplies in Asia-Pacific Region.
Russia remains the major energy resources exporter worldwide: it has a world lead in gas export, second place in oil export and third - in coal export. Russia exports 630 million tonnes oil equivalent, provides 16% of world trade. Moreover, Russia is the third biggest producer and consumer of energy resources worldwide after China and the US, providing 10% of world production and 5% of world consumption of energy resources.
Basic scenario of Outlook-2040 forecasts a slightly reduction of Russian energy export, which will start after 2015, and only in 2030-2040 the export will get round to 2010 levels. After 2015–20 the growth in the share of oil and petroleum products in the country’s energy exports will come to an end because of the increasing share of gas and increased export volumes of coal and electricity. The Other Asia Scenario is more optimistic for Russia – increase of Russian energy export by 20% up to 2040 in comparison with 2010 levels.