Experts make APEC energy development forecast for period until 2050

29 november 2019

How will electric power consumption by APEC countries change by 2050? Economies of which nations of the Group will demonstrate the highest growth? What are the prospects for renewable energy resources? These and other questions are answered by the APEC energy development forecast for the period until 2050 presented at the Analytical Center.

While presenting the forecast, Assistant to the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center Vice-President David Vaughan said that the population of APEC member countries would continue to grow and would reach its peak in the early 2040s. The GDP of APEC member countries will practically triple by 2050.

During that period, the demand for energy resources will be the highest in the construction and transport industries. It will grow 28% in the construction sector, and 25% in the transport industry. "The sector will demonstrate a 30% growth together with international transit (aviation and sea shipping)," Vaughan said. He added that the demand for energy resources would remain stably high in manufacturing industries.

"For now, China is the biggest energy consumer in the APEC region and will remain such until 2050," the speaker said. "Southeast Asia will be the mostly rapidly growing region due to the surge in population and economic activity. Hence, the GDP will practically triple, and the demand for energy resources will nearly double in Southeast Asia," he said.

The overall oil supply in the APEC region will increase from 8 billion tonnes to 10 billion tonnes by 2050, and China and Southeast Asia will be consuming 70% of the additional amount. On the whole, fossil fuel will continue to dominate in overall consumption of energy resources, Vaughan said. At the same time, coal mining will reduce, and gas production will grow due to the lower cost of gas and the development of shale projects. "The fastest growth will be demonstrated by renewable energy resources," the expert said. "However, the spread of renewable energy resources will create problems with their reliability and integration into the existent energy systems, which will have to be solved."

The biggest reduction of emissions will be seen in the energy complex, in particular, via electrification that will acquire a higher significance, he said.