By 2035, Russian gas exports may increase by at least 43% compared to 2018, that will allow Russia to retain leadership in the global gas market, experts of the Analytical Center state in bulletin "Natural Gas in the face of Energy Transformation".
They believe that gas exports will be increased mainly due to LNG. The key opportunities for growth are still situated in Asia which sees energy transformation as a more distant prospect. Furthermore, increase in exports will be affected by the completion of projects on construction of export gas main pipelines "The Power of Siberia", "Turk Stream", "Nord Stream 2".
The role of natural gas and its substitutes will remain one of the core issues under discussion in the European Union. Radical goals and the rapid withdrawal of gas and coal from the energy sector are more actively advocated by the countries with a relatively low dependence on these energy resources, experts add. The European and global trend in the spread of renewable energy resources will strengthen as technologies improve, but so far, the uneven electricity generation based on renewable energy resources requires to use natural gas as a balancing fuel. Thus, according to forecasts of the International Energy Agency in 2018, the share of gas in European energy consumption in the baseline scenario will be 26% in 2040, Skolkovo and the Institute for Energy Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences predict 27% for the same period.
Experts expect a significant increase in gas consumption in developing countries in Africa. By 2040, the population in these countries will double, the demand for electricity, water and work will increase. According to forecasts of the International Energy Agency, for 2017-2040, gas demand will grow by 2.1 times.
The Russia-Africa Summit, which was held in October this year, discussed the enhanced cooperation in the fuel and energy sector, including through the engagement of Russian companies in infrastructure projects in electricity industry. Russian business could be involved in energy supplies and in development projects, the bulletin's authors write.
For more details, see bulletin "Natural Gas in the face of Energy Transformation".
Other bulletins on energetics are available here.
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