“The present Outlook is slightly more optimistic than the previous one. The rate of economic growth is slightly higher, Chinese share in world GDP reaches 28%, share of European Union falls down from 20% to 11%. But the problem of energy shortage will not be solved by 2040”, - reported the Chief Adviser to Director General of the Analytical Center Leonid Grigoriev, presenting the Outlook during the XXII Moscow International Energy Forum “Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the XXI Century”.
Previous editions of the Outlook showed high state need in its own vision of global energy development. Those materials are widely discussed in Russia and abroad, actively used in state and corporate strategic documents, in scientific and applied researches. “Outlook-2013” was awarded with the 1st place in the field of scenario forecasting by the World Energy Council.
The updated edition of the Forecast includes fundamentally new scenarios of global energy development that are focused on new hydrocarbon producers and resource constraints of consumer countries. The experts noticed that after Iran, Iraq, Brazil, East Africa, Australia and Central Asia will enter the world oil and gas markets, the estimated oil price will decrease by no more than 9%. Considering the increasing pressure between Russia and Europe a new collaboration line is taken into account: Russia – CIS countries – China. At the same time the reducing of infrastructure and other opportunities for coal mining development in India and China can cause not only for new markets to emerge, but also the transfer of some industrial enterprises with a cheaper energy production to our territory, which could potentially affect the Russian economic development.
The Outlook-2014 provides a detailed analysis of changes in perspectives of the Russian economy and energy when affected by new trends, as well as shifting of the established trends in global economy and energy. Unexpected results of the hydrocarbon market forecast were obtained based on the improved model that allows to review in detail the global markets of oil, gas and coal.