Experts: the Economy Began to Recover as Far Back as 2016

15 may 2019

In the April bulletin on the current trends in the Russian economy the Analytical Center experts reviewed the trends in the size and structure of Russia's GDP in 2014-2018.

Late last December the Federal Statistics Service published revised estimates for the country's GDP. The GDP for 2015 was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points, that for 2016 was revised upwards by 0.5 percentage points and the figure for 2017 was revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points. The rather significant revision upward of the GDP growth rate for 2016 means that now the country's economy is considered to have actually grown rather than declined in 2016. This means that the economic recovery in Russia after the 2014-2015 recession is now officially believed to have started as far back as 2016.

The experts noted that the first estimate for the GDP for 2018 published by the statistics agency is 102.3% of the 2017 figure. The published GDP growth figure came as a bit of a surprise for the main government agency charged with making socio-economic development forecasts (the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation) as well as for the Russian and international expert communities. According to the authors of the bulletin, various estimates throughout 2018 put the GDP volume in the country throughout the year at 101.7-101.8%. The first estimate published by the statistics service exceeded the market expectations and ended up being the closest to the target set in Order No. 204 aimed at ensuring economic development growth at a pace faster than the global economy growth.

The experts note in the bulleting that throughout last year the greatest contribution to the increase in the GDP was made by such industries as extraction of raw materials, construction, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, state governance and law enforcement, social ensures as well as net taxes on groceries and imports.

The economic growth in Q1 of this year is estimated by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation to have been 0.8% on an annualized basis. The Ministry of Economic Development and experts prognosticate that the GDP growth is going to slow down by 1.0-1.3% compared to 2018.  

For more details see the bulletin Trends and Structure of Russia's GDP.

For other bulletins on the current trends in the Russian economy, see Publications.