"Analytical Center experts conducted a study and came up with 3 possible scenarios for the global development of e-vehicles until 2035: in the baseline scenario 190 million e-vehicles are to have been manufactured by 2035, in the optimistic scenario: 300 million and in the pessimistic scenario: 70 million," said the head of Research at the Department for the Fuel and Energy Sector of the Analytical Center Alexander Kurdin, opening a round table on the impact of the development of electric transport around the world and on the fuel and energy sector in Russia.
"Throughout the 20th century the development of e-vehicles was held back by low prices for petroleum products which made the internal combustion engine a very competitive option. In the 21st century, large-scale state support became a key driver for electric vehicles. Modern electric vehicles are gaining in efficiency, however, they are still less efficient than internal combustion vehicles on a number of parameters," said Dmitry Glushevenko, a researcher with the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to the expert, small electric vehicles should be kept in mind as well. Today, electric scooters can already successfully compete with their internal combustion counterparts on price.
The expert paid special attention to major automotive companies which by 2025 plan to offer a total of 79 new electric vehicle models, localize e-vehicle manufacture in third world countries, halve the cost of batteries and reduce charging times to 15 minutes. "All major automotive companies except for F.C.A. believe in the forthcoming large scale electrification of the automotive market in the near future," Dmitry Grushevenko said.
The expert is of the opinion that the development prospects of e-vehicles hinge directly on technological progress. "The bulk of the costs of an electric vehicle comes form the battery and all the main efforts are currently focused on reducing these costs," Mr Grushevenko assured. The expert also noted that state support is a key driver for the development the e-vehicles market.
Iya Gordeeva, CEO of Audit Energo Group named a number of advantages offered by electric vehicles such as low cost of ownership, better dynamics, improved comfort, high efficiency, zero vibrations, the ability to recover energy during braking, low noise levels, high reliability of parts and components, which contributes to the low overall cost of ownership. "The total number of e-vehicles sold around the world in January-December of last year was 1,223,600 units, which is 58% more than in 2016. These include both fully electric vehicles (66% of total sales) and plug-in hybrids," the expert said.
As for the development of a charging infrastructure, incentives are needed here as well, Iya Gordeeva believes. "It is important to offer reduced interest rates for financing of the construction of charging facilities, create public private partnerships that would include manufacturers and develop new regulations and state standards to ensure uniformity of requirements for the charging infrastructure based on the type and category of charging stations, charging cables and plugs, " the expert said. In the opinion of Iya Gordeeva, the development of a charging infrastructure can help transition of the transport system to cleaner energy and increase the number of electric vehicles on the roads.
The panel discussion participants underlined that development of electric vehicles also needs information support, state and public promotion of the use of electric vehicles in business and for personal use.