Analytical Center expert Alexander Golyashev presented a report titled New Era of Global Trade and BRICS Co-operation at the 2017 BRICS Think Tank Symposium on BRICS Co-operation and International Production Chains.
In the medium term, the IMF is predicting a gradual increase in the global GDP growth to 3.76 % in 2021 thanks to increased GDP growth in developing nations (especially in India, the ASEAN nations, the Middle East, and Latin America), which are expected to average 5 % annual GDP growth from 2020 onwards, Mr. Golyashev said.
At the same time a number of key economies are projected to slow down: in China GDP growth is projected to slow down from 6.70 % in 2016 to 5.80 % in 2021, in the EU i i's to go down from 1.95 % to 1.70 %, and in the US GDP growth is expected to essentially stay the same as in 2016, inching upwards from 1.62 % to 1.67 %.
In recent years, the way international trade is developing has changed: the IMF estimates that in 2012-2016 it was growing slower than the global GDP. The slowing down of international trade is to a large extent a result of an increase in regionalization and protectionism. After an increase in various trade restrictions around the world through 2012, we are now seeing them being relaxed, with indirect measures having almost completely replaced direct restrictions.
According to the expert, the share of the BRICS nations in global exports was 18 % in 2016 and in global imports it was 15 %. The undisputed trade leader in the BRICS is China, which accounts for a lion's share of imports of the other BRICS countries. On the other hand, in relative terns, China's involvement in the trade within the BRICS is the smallest, with it accounting for just 6 % of BRICS exports and 7 % of BRICS imports.
There is clearly a huge potential for further development of trade within the BRICS, Mr. Golyashev concluded.