Full Scale Global Energy Forecasts Are Close to Consensus

12 december 2016

8th November, 2016 saw the publication of the Russian long term energy forecast prepared by the Institute for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center of the Government of the Russian Federation and a few days later, on November 16, 2016, another energy forecast was published by the IEA. The projections for key indicators for 2040 in the baseline scenarios found in the two forecasts are fairly close to each other, even though they are based on different assumptions. The different approaches to building up scenarios for the two forecasts allow to compare and contrast the consequences of macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks as well as of possible changes in the global energy policy: the latter prove to be more significant.

Analytical Center experts believe the forecasts came out at the right time. It has been 3 years since the collapse of the oil prices. The energy markets have gone through the initial stage of adaptation to the shock. Except for few countries the global economy is growing once again. In this respect it is interesting that the projections found in the two forecasts are not that different from each other while the assumed growth scenarios differ only in a few key assumptions. In effect, what is being evidenced now is something very close to a consensus of forecasters: the basic assumptions include fast technological progress coupled with a number of major risks but the overall expected result is the same structure of the economy in 2040 as we have today with four almost equal shares: three ones for hydrocarbons (coal, natural gas, liquid fuel) and a fourth for renewable energy and other energy sources.

For more, see the bulleting “Long Term Forecasts in the Face of Volatility”

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