Total Demand for Energy is Expected to Grow by 30% by 2040

9 december 2016

The IEA’s new forecast until 2040 offers several good landmarks for the future development of the global energy sector. For example, oil consumption is expected to grow up to 103 million barrels a day and the OPEC’s share in global oil output is expected to increase, according to Analytical Center experts who have released a new bulletin on the current trends in the global economy titled “Taking the Pulse: Updated IEA Forecast on Global Energy. Focus on: Turkey - between Europe and Asia”. The experts note that significant amounts of investments are needed in the global energy sector while the forecast also indicates that regardless of the expected oil prices Russia will ensure about 6% of global investments in the fuel and energy sector through 2040.

According to the baseline scenario, global demand for energy will have increased by 30% by 2040, but there is going to be a lot of variation in the amount of growth for different energy sources. Demand for natural gas is suggested to go up the most, by a total of 50%, between 2014 and 2040. Demand for oil is expected to grow by just 12%, up to 103 million barrels a day, with the rate of growth slowing down towards the end of the period. The IEA estimates that global oil production is going to peak in 2025 with the OPEC’s share in global output increasing to 48% by 2040. The countries that signed the Paris Agreement on climate changes should limit the demand for coal, and it is expected to decline by 2040.

As far as the state of the Turkish economy is concerned, the experts believe it is very important for the entire Middle East. The country is undergoing a rather challenging stage in its industrialization. Turkey’s economic growth has slowed down because of internal conflicts and a complicated situation in the region in whole, and for further successful growth the country needs conditions conducive to long term development, including political stability, inflow of capital and reliable supply of energy resources. The IMF expects that over the next five years Turkey will see economic growth at a rate of 3-3.5% a year. Russia is interested in Turkey’s prosperity and there is a number of joint projects that could boost the development of both our countries, the experts claim. At the same time, Turkey’s prospects of joining the EU become less and less certain as relations between the two parties continue to become complicated, the experts believe.

For more see the bulletin “Taking the Pulse”: Updated IEA Forecast on Global Energy. Focus on: Turkey - between Europe and Asia.

For other issues of our bulletin on current trends in the global economy see Publications.