“The Analytical Center in conjunction with The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences have drawn up Energy Development Forecast for Russia and the World until 2040, which is going to be officially presented on November 8, said Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Center Leonid Grigoriev, speaking at a discussion session of the 13th Annual Meeting of Valdai International Discussion Club. “When working on the forecast, we found there were no reliable predictions for Africa and the way that region is going to be supplied with energy, neither are there any forecasts about migration from Africa. So, in the future some serious problems can be expected in Europe.”
Since the main topic of the meeting was formulated as The Future Begins Today: Visions of Tomorrow, Leonid Grigoriev spoke primarily about forecasts and specifically about future migration trends. “There are migration shifts underway in countries that can hardly be classified as the poorest: some people are improving their living standards while others are moving to countries that they see on TV or on the Internet - information plays a key role here,” the expert believes. “Global climate change should also be considered when talking about the causes of migration.”
According to Mr. Grigoriev, migration can have three stages: first, rural population migrates within the country because of drought, then one or another type of a civic conflict may drive people out into neighboring countries, and, finally, at the first ‘political’ opportunity people try and migrate to more developed countries to pursue their ‘Internet dream’.
As was noted at the Valdai Club meeting, there is no global migration strategic and neither is there an appreciation of the risks we will be facing over the next few decades.
Photo: website of Valdai International Discussion Club.