Large foreign investment banks expect Russian economy growth of 1%

3 december 2015 | Vesti. Ekonomika

At the regular meeting of the Stolypin club the expert of the Analytical Center Daniil Nametkin presented the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators of recent 5 years and forecasted for 2016-2017. 'In 2015 we evidenced several appaling records. The sharp decline of oil quotations has the main impact on the decrease in macroeconomic data of Russia. Since 2012 Russia's economy shows the systemic decline,' said the expert.

Daniil Nametkin
Daniil Nametkin
Department for Expert Analytics

Russia increases the gap with the leading world economies - the US and China, and the main challenge is the decline in real incomes and consumption. 'The devalued national currency is pushing to boost investments in extractive industries, but in manufacturing there is decrease in the level of investments up to 40%,' the 'Vesti. Ekonomika ' website quotes Mr Nametkin. Regarding the banking sector, it reached the peak in consumer loans in May, 2012, according to experts. 'The banking system has been in a difficult situation for about a year. Except for Sberbank the system currently is demostrating negative results, especially in retail. In the corporate segment, the situation is somewhat better,' said the expert.

The budget situation is more stable, comsiders Mr Nametkin. 'The devaluation evened the drop in revenue from oil prices. However the current situation began to deteriorate slightly with 64-65 rubles a dollar, and if we estimate the current price of oil per barrel in rubles, we will see 2700-2800 rubles. Earlier oil cost about 3,600 rubles per barrel. In such conditions there are certain risks associated with forming the budget for 2016,' considers the expert.

However, large foreign investment banks expect growth of the Russian economy of about 1%. At the same time, the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD are more cautious in their forecasts, said the expert, adding that the consensus forecast still is slightly negative.