Expectations for economic growth in the world are spiraling down

17 november 2015 | Rossiyskaya Biznes-Gazeta

The International Energy Agency published a report on the prospects of world energy development up to 2040, which indicates an increase of about one third of the world energy consumption (it will be provided by India, China, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa). Whether Russia enters the list of leading energy-consuming countries, the forecast does not tell. However, at the same time, the IEA experts inform about a possible decrease in the share of the oil and gas energy balance of Russia from 75 to 66%.

Leonid Grigoryev
Leonid Grigoryev
Chief Adviser to Head of the Analytical Center

This forecast mildly contrasts with the data of the study prepared in 2014 by experts of the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation (the AC) and the Energy Research Institute of RAS – 'GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK UP TO 2040.'

'The Outlook of the Energy Research Institute of RAS- the AC forecasted that in 2020 the  primary energy consumption in the world will reach 15.1 billion tonnes o.e. which is more optimistic than the IEA's new forecast,' Leonid Grigoriev, the Chief Adviser to the Head of the Analytical Center, commented on the situation to 'Rossiyskaya Biznes-Gazeta', recalling that last year the IEA predicted 15.0 billion tonnes o.e. 'This shows the similarity of views of foreign and domestic forecasters and the gradual reduction of expectations of economic growth in the world. The structure of primary energy consumption in the IEA and the Energy Research Institute of RAS- and the AC projections also differs marginally: according to the IEA the share of coal is reduced more strongly by 2040 - to 24.6% (the Energy Research Institute of RAS- and the AC - 26%), but a slightly higher proportion of nuclear energy and bioenergy is expected,' said the expert.