Leonid Grigoriev, the Chief Adviser to the Head of the Analytical Center, commented on the issue with oil prices live on "Ekho Moskvy."
We should live on firm ground amid $ 50-60 per barrel
The excess of oil in 2014 was negligible - just 1-1.5%, according to Mr. Grigoriev. The current situation does not surprise the expert. "Firstly, in winter prices of oil and gas always jump up, as the demand for energy increases. These are seasonal natural processes. Secondly, the price of $45-50 per barrel pressed down drilling in the United States, where really a half of drillsites does not operate," said the expert. This led to a decrease of long-term forecasts for the additional production at very expensive Arctic exploration sites and production of shale oil in the US, so the drilling and the long-term increase in production in the foreseeable future will be much lower. The oil market is not determinate, all attempts of mathematicians to create a perfect model, were not implemented, according to the expert.
"The fact that in October, with the excess of oil, the prices went up, is an encouraging phenomenon for the Russian budget. However, if oil prices go very high up, the US will start to drill in new locations, to search for new eposits. We are now dealing with the American drilling industry, and if the price of oil rapidly grows up, the Americans immediately start to drill, and if falls, then they stop," said the expert.
Mr. Grigoriev sees no perspectives of returning to the price of $100 per barrel. "We need to live on firm ground amid $ 50-60 per barrel. If this price holds for the foreseeable future, we shall finally start to do something with our hands and heads, and not just sit by the pipe, "he concluded.