Forecasts on the exchange rate of the ruble and oil prices by the end of the year remain the focus of discussion and they are also constantly changing. Early in the week, Sberbank of Russia published a review titled External Shocks 2015, where it mentioned a possible shock in the foreign exchange market in Q4 of this year.
Ruble manages to adapt to new economic conditions
The Deputy Head of the Department for Expert Analytics of the Analytical Center Daniil Nametkin does not agree with the contention that we are in for another shock this fall. “In all probability, companies already stockpiled on foreign currency in May when the USD exchange rate fell to RUR 50 per dollar,” Mr. Nametkin told a correspondent for the PROVED information and analytical portal, “Thus even though foreign debt payments will peak in September (it is estimated that the corporate sector will have to pay USD 12.4 billion), we will probably not see significant downward pressure on the ruble.”
The expert believes the national currency has managed to adapt to the new economic conditions and that by the end of the year the RUR to USD exchange rate will remain within the range of RUR 55 – RUR 60 per USD. “However, new shocks are still possible: these can come from falling prices in the commodity markets as well as from the slowing-down of the economic growth in China, the largest consumer of commodities in the world,” Mr. Nametkin pointed out.