What is the state of the Russian economy? What could promote its growth in the coming years? Does the Russian financial system, in view of negative external factors, have sufficient margin of safety? The Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Center Leonid Grigoriev answered these questions on TV Center.
By the end of 2019 we will reach the historical value of oil demand
"We are at the stage of slow recovery. The statistics show that the situation related to consumption has stabilized and it has started to grow. In 2016, consumption decreased, with moderate inflation in 2017 there was a slight upward leap," the expert said. As for the consumption structure, in 2016 and 2017 we bought about 1.5 million new cars and resold about 5 million used cars. Mr. Grigoriev thinks that this is a positive trend. The expert also noted that by 2014 Russia sustained a consumer boom for durable goods, many indicators increased significantly.
"The situation in the oil market is something like this: despite all the savings, demand is growing by a million barrels a year. The demand will be dissolved between the producers. Approximately by the end of 2019, we will reach a historical value of 100 million barrels per year," the analyst believes. Mr. Grigoriev also took a favorable view of the agreement on oil production reduction between Russia and OPEC, which brought about RUB 1.2 trillion to the Russian budget.
Surely, the problem of poverty in Russia exists, Mr. Grigoriev said. "The issue history is as follows: in the mid-90s, there were 50% or the poor, by the beginning of 2000s, the number reduced to about 15%, before 2014 it reached 10%. Now, the number of the poor is Russia is again about 15%. These are not catastrophic indicators. But we should remember that inequality is vast: 45% of income account for 20% of the wealthiest people, 5% of income account for 20% of the poorest," the expert told.
Source: TV Center